In 2024, child care was a crucial election issue, informing voter behavior and policy discussions. With the economy being another focus, candidates from both parties acknowledged the need for affordable and accessible child care, though they proposed different solutions. With election results in most races called, we have a better understanding of the political landscape and what it means for child care.
Republican trifecta ahead at the federal level
Voters selected approximately 88% of the 535 seats that were up for election in the Senate and House of Representatives to create the 119th Congress. Republicans have officially secured a government trifecta by retaining their majority in the House of Representatives, winning the presidency, and retaking the majority in the Senate. There were 34 total Senate seats up for election, with party changes of the incoming Senators in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats were up for election. There were 22 district races that were deemed ‘toss-ups’ that were the most competitive and either party had a chance of winning. These districts were in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oregon Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.
Slight changes to political landscapes in states
While there was significant attention on the presidential and federal-level elections, approximately 78% of legislative state-level seats were up for election. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 44 states held legislative races, which selected 5,808 state seats for 87 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers (Nebraska is unicameral). And while Republicans secured big wins at the federal level, the number of Republican state legislators did not dramatically increase. Democrats held onto the Minnesota Senate, both Nevada chambers, and the Pennsylvania House. The only legislative chamber that changed parties was the Michigan House. In Minnesota, Democrats lost their majority in the House to a tie. While there weren’t significant shifts nationally, there were some outcomes that will impact how individual state governments operate. NCSL shares that:
- The number of states with divided government increased: Republicans kept 22 out of the 23 trifectas they entered Election Day with; compared to Democrats keeping 14 of the 17. Trifectas in a state occur when one party controls both state legislative chambers as well as the governor’s seat. States where either party previously held a trifecta and now do not means there will be more opportunities for bipartisan governance and negotiation.
- The number of states with veto-proof majorities will likely decrease: A veto-proof majority, also referred to as ‘supermajority’, allows legislators to override a governor’s veto. The vote margin for a veto-proof majority required varies by state but gives the party that controls the state legislature significant power in their respective state.
- Some states likely to have no party holding the majority in legislative chambers: In the Maine State House, Democrats will most likely not be able to secure the 76 seats needed to have the majority due to two Independent candidates winning seats. In the Alaska House, a party needs to hold 21 seats to cross the majority threshold. Members of the Alaska House will likely form a governing coalition.
Gubernatorial elections and child care
Eleven states elected or re-elected governors in the recent election. Governors can propose, pass, or veto legislation, issue executive orders to take quick action, provide oversight of state agencies, and support the development of the state budget—all of which can directly impact policies and funding for child care. Three governors were re-elected (Spencer Cox - Republican for Utah, Phil Scot- Republican for Vermont, and Greg Gianforte- Republican for Montana). Eight governors were newly elected; three Democrats (Matt Meyer for Delaware, Josh Stein for North Carolina and Bob Ferguson for Washington, and five Republicans (Mike Braun for Indiana, Mike Kehoe for Missouri, Kelly Ayotte for New Hampshire, Kelly Armstrong for North Dakota, and Patrick Morrisey for West Virginia). There were no changes or ‘flips’ in the party in power in any of the gubernatorial races. While not an exhaustive list, some of the incoming governors included child care as a priority in their campaign messaging:
- Delaware’s Governor-elect Matt Meyer (Democrat) ran on a comprehensive education plan that promises to provide universal access to preschool throughout the state by the end of his first term; make affordable, high-quality child care and early childhood education accessible to all parents; and to prioritize the growth and support of professional development opportunities for those working with children in early childhood settings.
- During North Dakota’s Governor debate in October, Governor-elect Kelly Armstrong (Republican) responded to a question about child care supply in the state. Armstrong said the child care workforce needs to be a focus because new facilities won’t be able to succeed without people to adequately staff them. He also proposed streamlining the grant writing processes for providers to make it easier for them to receive assistance.
- As part of his Veterans and Military Personnel platform, Washington’s Governor-elect Bob Ferguson (Democrat) cited expanding affordable child care as tool to promote employment and economic empowerment. Ferguson plans to “work with public, private, philanthropic, and labor partners to address this need with an emphasis on co-located services, greater subsidy for low-and middle-income families, improved workforce development for child care workers, and other programs that can make a real difference for Washington families.”
Big wins for child care on ballot measures
Ballot measures—also known as initiatives, referendums, or propositions—are an important mechanism for change at the state and local level. They allow voters to take a direct role in shaping and enacting policies, instead of leaving decisions solely to elected officials. In 2024, voters in at least six states decided upon seven child care related ballot measures. The results of this year’s ballot measure outcomes show voters remain interested in increasing the accessibility of affordable child care in their communities—even if that means reallocating funds or taxing themselves at a higher rate to do so.
- Statewide Ballot Measures: Washington voters rejected Initiative 2109, which would have repealed the Capital Gains Tax Initiative if it had passed. This tax was enacted in 2021 under the Fair Start for Kids Act, which imposes a 7% tax on individuals with capital gains over $250,000. Voters preserved the revenue from collecting the capital gains tax to be used to fund child care subsidies for qualifying families and bonuses for child care centers offering care outside of traditional hours.
- Local-Level Ballot Measures: There were at least five local-level ballot measures in November 2024 that were directly related to child care funding and accessibility, four of which voters approved. In California, voters approved Measure I in Sonoma County and Measure Y in Pomona. The Sonoma County Child Care and Children’s Health Fund will impose a sales tax of 0.25%, expected to generate $30 million annually. The city of Pomona will allocate a predetermined percentage of its existing unrestricted general-purpose revenue annually, capping out at 10%. The measure is anticipated to generate up to $20 million for the funding, a portion of which will be used for child care. In Travis County, Texas, voters approved Proposition A, a 2.5% property tax increase that could generate up to $75.8 million. A portion of the funding would go to increasing access to affordable and high-quality infant and toddler care for families with low incomes. Voters in Grand County, Colorado passed a county lodging tax increase of 2% (up from 1.8%), which could generate almost a quarter of a million dollars which will partially be used to support child care for the county’s workforce. Voters in St. Paul, Minnesota rejected a property tax levy that would have generated $20 million annually over a decade to provide public funding for child care initiatives.
What’s next?
Our political landscape has changed, but our work as child care advocates to build an affordable, high-quality, equitable child care system remains the same. State legislative sessions begin in the new year, presenting an opportunity to enact policies that better support young children, families, and care providers. Many candidates at all levels for public office brought up child care in various capacities, and we intend to hold the winners to their promises to their constituents.
View our post-election webinar on how the recent election results are influencing the future of child care and what insights we are seeing with the post-election policy landscape.